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AMD : A Stock Market Perspective and Prediction

Dear Newyorkian.com readers,

Today I will deviate from my regular reports on theater and news and go straight into financial commentary mode on a subject I am most passionate, computer technology and history. The subject is AMD in a sea of other chip companies rallying the market these days.

AMD was the golden child of the 90s with the only competing product to Intel to run a PC/Mac. If you consider the complexity and resolve the little company must have to support competition with Intel? The history reads differently. Back in the day, Intel was not so big, AMD was still the little guy but their products had real heart built in. The computer enthusiast or even the corporate good could be sporting an AMD processor in a computing device, laptop or desktop, and not even know it.

So what happened? Where did AMD go?

AMD went dormant in the PC market. They pulled back resources directed at Intel competitive product and focused on customer product. Every use an XBOX? How about a Sony PS4? When AMD does business like this, their profile is pushed back behind the brand Their technology powers but is NOT visible to the public and thus, their stock is really not interesting. For many years this was the case. A stock price of near $1.65. No one really bothered to bring AMD up in conversation, yet every kid of a Wall St. trader had a device powered by them in their living rooms.

So what is AMD?
So the story goes like this. AMD had.has some of the best engineers in both the design and manufacture of processors and chip making. It’s important to note that these guys in some/many cases are literally the the fastest most intelligent systems your companies use today. Guys like Mark Papermaster, an engineers engineer working on the Zen platform while people doubted it would ever see the light of day. Engineering a new way to manipulate the same old processes but with added features like caching where it counts, predictive concepts and clock speeds that are limited in part by thermal factors only.  I believe the best of the best love AMD and what they stand for, innovation and pushing the edge. In some respects this is why the enterprise computing world, in part, has leaned toward Intel. The funny part about all of this is, to be a competitive business now, you better have “the edge” AMD is pushing or you’ll just get crushed. I am talking about in the data center and on desktops where applications can benefit.

AMD Now what?
When AMD was $1.65, I sat there and considered how this happened? I looked for all the news I could. A lot of that news was their plans to come back with the Zen platform leading. At the time it was a pipe dream to many. Enter Lisa T. Su, An old IBM’r here is a person that is a force to be reckoned  with if she is given the tools. At first, I didn’t thing AMD could pick themselves up from the custom business that put them in the position. Lisa Su rallied and played the spirit of innovation and did so to a listening and hungry public, some gamers, some data scientists. These guys were sick of the same old thing. There had been no landmark improvement in processor tech in years. There had been no alternatives and certainly no hope for a lower priced processor with huge power.

AMD released it’s line of processors so far and they can, in some cases, halve the cost of an Intel process with greater performance. This will have a huge impact on the workplace potentially. If you can imagine current staff working faster, opening more applications and potentially working with systems that exceed their work speed, it’s huge. Currently Intel makes processor speeds found in the i7 and even the i9 cost prohibitive at scale for many companies that still need workstations (not VM’s). for those hosting VM’s for users, this could make faster stations more affordable in VM farms as well. The larger scale value of AMD in the market at 1/2 cost price point can/could change the world.

What about NVIDIA?
NVIDIA are not a bunch of losers. :). They grew market share while AMD was doing their custom business. We all watched as NVIDIA grew but people in the know know. NVIDIA was NOT and is stil NOT AMD, trust me. NVIDIA is a by the book deliver various processors and products, it’s nice. They are not the ultimate custom builders like AMD with huge experience in the space and they can’t and don’t have a x64 processor on the list of products NO WAY. NVIDIA was small time back in the day and literally, if they don’t get their shit together, they are going to be there again as AMD climbs. In fact, it’s scary how they can become minor even now with AMD’s path.

AMD and Tesla Rumor
I can’t say this is true but I can say that it’s absolutely possible. NVIDIA as I mentioned above is not the killer super star in custom. AMD’s experience in this space is likely the reason this rumor came about. Elon Musk is about innovation, he is a visionaries visionary. It comes as ZERO surprise that he hired some AMD engineers and zero surprise that they want to use AMD as support, it’s a freaking DUH! moment.

So I am bullish on AMD. I am long and I think it’s the future.

This is all opinion and does not constitute any kind or form of advice. I am not licensed to sell stock nor am I any kind of advisor. I am a tech historian making a prediction. A prediction is all it is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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